Bushes are not Kennedys

Jeb Bush is not one of those icons tho whom people dedicate admiration and trust. So wasn’t George W. None of them are even close to what their father was. He had the strength and relevance to fight against the liberals. Michael Dukakis got beaten by a strong speech of recovering America’s global relevance. Power! Pride!

Keynes is the Henry Ford of Institutional Investors

How could the world be surprised with 2008 crash? It wasn’t a matter of “if markets would melt”, but when. Paulson may have misjudged the complexity and speed that things would get when he called the bluff. Was the crash Hank’s fault? Never! Securitization, Ponzi schemes, money for nothing and greed are the ones to be blamed. (suggested reading On the Brink, Paulson, Henry)…

Should we consider a coincidence that even after 1929, Keynes allocated more than half of his Portfolio in common stocks? The obvious answer is No! Fundamentals and long-term focus. Forget about the news, turn-off the TV and the tens of financial apps notifications. Try to focus for some time in each company you choose to analyze.

Global What Ifs!

What if… This is one of those questions we keep asking ourselves through our lifetimes…

What if? The good thing about economists, is that they (us) do not commit any mistakes. They (us) change their (our) minds…

The capability of influencing people and organizations based on future assumptions can be deceiving. Some may use “What ifs” for good… others may not… Globally we are experiencing some serious transformation in economic forecasts and realities. I chose to list today some of the What ifs… questions I will answer here, anticipating that I may “change my mind’ for some reason in the near future. Therefore, this article is perishable.

Along comes a Spider… Did Petrobras wash the spider out?

Production, exploration, pre-salt, distribution. There are a whole bunch of opportunities to sustain the company’s capability of getting back on track and deliver strong results in the near future. Cash flow will certainly be managed considering the spotlights will be turned to every single decision of top management and the auditors under pressure to validate numbers that eventually try to hide some misbehaviors as seen before.

Athens will fall… now what?

Kicking Greece away from the Eurozone can show the world that European giants are committed to respecting contracts and their alignment with the future. If Alexis Tsipras thinks Frankfurt will be touched by his reality, he might be far from right.

Brazil Took OFF (What? Now?)

Brazil’s lack of infrastructure, need for investments in health services and education, represents undeniable opportunities for worldwide investors and strategic acquirers. There are a whole bunch of microenvironments and niche markets inside this continental country that offers two digit growth rates. Needless to say how rare this is nowadays globally. I’ll add another opinion by quoting Thais Heredia, one of Globo Group (the biggest Brazilian media network) financial editors: “Brazil is inevitable. It is not a matter of if it is going to grow, just the cost of getting there.”

Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish!!!

October 5th. is another death anniversary of the man who changed the way we live our lives forever. A man that dealt with failure and success in the most incredible way I have ever seen. Moreover, that was based on believing. On insisting. On pursuing. On learning from everyone, everything, everywhere and every time.

Why will ESG change capital markets forever?

My undeniable conclusion is that ESG, CSR, GRI and all these multiple letters bring us more than new business definitions to know and understand. This is the New Economic Era. Cost of equity and debt, attractiveness, relation with shareholders and stakeholders… everything is strongly and definitively connected. If I could turn back time, if I could find the way… I would remember to focus on the obvious real value. The ultimate link between capital providers, Main Street, Wall Street and stakeholders is definitely sustainability in its wider meaning we can think about.

Crossed Destinies – Brazil & USA

Uncle Sam is a genius. When things get though, find yourself a war… Could the military industry alone recover a giant economy? No sir… it is more than an army war. It is about commitment. It is about selfish behavior (in a good sense). It definitely is about knowing that solving your own problems must be any country’s priority.